Middlesbrough v Brighton might not have the allure of one of the biggest matches of the season - but Nick Miller explains why the stakes are so high.
When Chris Hughton arrived at Brighton halfway through last season, the Seagulls were in the bottom three and heading for relegation. Not only did he guide them to safety, but just over a year later Brighton now go into the final day of this season knowing that a win against Middlesbrough will mean promotion to the Premier League. The trouble for Brighton is, a victory means exactly the same for Boro, too.
The play-off final is usually thought of as the most dramatic and high-pressured single game in the English domestic football calendar, but the beauty of this season in the Championship is that we effectively have two. Beauty, that is, for the neutral: for the teams and fans involved it must be the most extraordinary torture, particularly when you consider that whoever doesn't prevail at the weekend will go into the play-offs and may have to do it all again in a few weeks. It's not an easy life in the Championship.
The odds are in Boro's favour. The teams go into the game at the Riverside level on points, but with the home side holding an advantage on goal difference, so with Burnley guaranteed one of the automatic promotion spots the equation is simple: if Brighton win, they're up, but if not it's Boro that join the elite.
For his part, Hughton seems relatively happy that the pressure is on his team to win. “Sometimes when you go into a game knowing a draw will do, a drawing mentality turns into a losing mentality,” he said after their game against Derby last weekend. "We know what we have to do – we just have to show enough quality, against a really good team. There's no doubt they're favourites, but we'll give ourselves every chance.”
The reason that Aitor Karanka's side are favourites is partly that they can afford not to win, but partly because of their home record. Boro have lost just twice at the Riverside this season in the league, a pair of curious aberrations against Bristol City and Nottingham Forest (currently 18th and 17th respectively), but they have won there 16 times, more than anyone else in the top four divisions, and have beaten the other four members of the top six.
“We've been good away for the large majority of this season,” said Hughton on Monday, continuing his typically upbeat view about things. “We haven't lost to teams like Derby and Burnley, but we need to go one step forward and win it.” Drawing does seem to be the problem: Brighton have drawn more games on the road than Middlesbrough have in total, and if a couple of those had been turned into victories, they wouldn't require this final day nerve-shredder to earn promotion.
What makes the game even trickier to call is that both teams are in very similar form. Boro are unbeaten in the last nine, Brighton the last 13, but both sides showed fragilities in drawing their last games. Boro were denied a victory over Birmingham by a questionable (read: wrong) offside decision to disallow what would've been a Dani Ayala winner; Brighton had to rely on a scruffy James Wilson equaliser in the 94th minute against Derby. With both teams, cracks showed, but were then covered up.
Middlesbrough manager Aitor Karanka - PA Photos
Both teams have definite match-winners in their ranks; Boro have the best defence in the division while Brighton have scored at least twice in seven of their last eight; the scrap in midfield is likely to be fierce, with Beram Kayal and Adam Clayton two of the more underrated players in the division this season. In short, it could hardly be set up more perfectly.
One thing that might be different is the respective psychological pressures between the two sides. Having spent heavily on the likes of Jordan Rhodes, David Nugent, Stewart Downing and Christian Stuani, Boro were very much expected to not just challenge but perhaps run away with the division. They just missed out on promotion last term, so the intent was clear in the summer: failure was not an option this time. Conversely, at the start of the season, Brighton fans would probably have been perfectly happy with an upper mid-table finish. Progress was the best they could have reasonably hoped for after a relegation scrap last season, Hughton's predecessor Sami Hyypia proving an uncharacteristic disaster for a team that have largely been superbly run in recent years. Their success has been unexpected, but has now raised expectations.
“There's no doubt there's more expectation and pressure on them,” said Hughton of Boro, which you might file under 'mind games' if it came from anyone but him. In truth though, the pressure on both teams is huge, for while they know they have the safety net of the play-offs should they fail, that's not a safety net either of them particularly want. It could well be the tensest game of the year.
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